Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 0.100337 0.114807 0.130533 0.148881 0.169689 0.192542 0.219532
2026-01-25 0.076279 0.094604 0.116073 0.143035 0.175949 0.214778 0.264019
2026-02-01 0.057982 0.077528 0.102080 0.135088 0.178202 0.232497 0.305953
2026-02-08 0.045713 0.065671 0.092458 0.130867 0.184331 0.255900 0.358730
2026-02-15 0.036152 0.055654 0.083552 0.126092 0.189000 0.278214 0.413865
2026-02-22 0.030610 0.050312 0.080238 0.128589 0.204243 0.317445 0.498833
2026-03-01 0.024637 0.043175 0.073035 0.124065 0.208394 0.341260 0.565126
2026-03-08 0.020177 0.037606 0.067300 0.120839 0.214021 0.368171 0.640477
2026-03-15 0.016650 0.032931 0.062208 0.117773 0.219377 0.395415 0.720606
2026-03-22 0.014627 0.030586 0.060764 0.120834 0.235815 0.443707 0.843846
2026-03-29 0.012503 0.027611 0.057620 0.120198 0.245412 0.481334 0.953768
2026-04-05 0.010939 0.025452 0.055662 0.121499 0.258879 0.527977 1.087271
2026-04-12 0.009636 0.023639 0.054203 0.123843 0.275412 0.584072 1.249858
2026-04-19 0.007959 0.020614 0.049609 0.118736 0.275763 0.608358 1.353145
2026-04-26 0.006472 0.017692 0.044670 0.111937 0.271318 0.622185 1.437232
2026-05-03 0.005435 0.015649 0.041368 0.108298 0.273365 0.650287 1.556720
2026-05-10 0.004552 0.013795 0.038147 0.104232 0.273714 0.674733 1.672079
2026-05-17 0.004083 0.012973 0.037389 0.106244 0.289254 0.736540 1.883444
2026-05-24 0.003448 0.011506 0.034616 0.102427 0.289424 0.761922 2.011997
2026-05-31 0.002952 0.010333 0.032406 0.099705 0.291983 0.793590 2.161031
2026-06-07 0.002537 0.009305 0.030389 0.097127 0.294481 0.825516 2.315739
2026-06-14 0.002322 0.008890 0.030124 0.099649 0.311739 0.898545 2.588701
2026-06-21 0.002056 0.008222 0.028927 0.099103 0.320051 0.948884 2.808420